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Failure of Elections Looms

by Perry Diaz

With the discovery of glitches in 76,000 compact flash (CF) cards in the Precinct Count Optical Scanner (PCOS) machines just five days prior to Election Day, the probability of a “NO-EL” (no election) scenario is almost a certainty.

There is just no way that Smartmatic-TIM — the contractor responsible for the operation of the new Automated Election System (AES) — could fix the “source code” glitches, lab-test the corrected “source code,” create 76,000 new CF cards, and thoroughly field-test the PCOS machines throughout the country. Not in five days. Not in 30 days. They’d be lucky if they can generate a glitch-free “source code” in 60 days. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) is left with no other option but to postpone the May 10 elections. To proceed would only lead to chaos and total breakdown of the electoral process.

NO-EL Scenario

But what if Smartmatic-TIM fails to deliver glitch-free 76,000 PCOS-specific CF cards in 30 days? And what if it would take them 60 or more days to deliver? Sixty days from now would be in the early part of July 2010. By that time, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo would have already completed her term of office on June 30. And if there were no elections yet by that time, Arroyo would stay as holdover president. And at that time, the holding of elections could slide further into the future until the CF cards can be field-tested in each precinct and certified to function without a glitch. Realistically, it could take months to complete this gargantuan task. Meanwhile, Gloria is back in the saddle romping with power like she did in the past nine years.

A NO-EL scenario could easily ignite a firestorm of mass protest — and violence — in Metro Manila and other cities demanding Gloria to step down. And when that happens, the military under the command of Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Delfin Bangit would move in to quell the “uprising.” There would be riots, bloodshed, and arrests. And riots, bloodshed, and arrests would lead to more riots, bloodshed, and arrests. And finally, martial law. Déjà vu.

Oplan Rafael

Last May 4, the militant party-list group Bayan Muna accused the Arroyo administration of perpetrating a plan to stay in power. They claimed that this was the goal of a secret plan they uncovered: “Oplan Rafael” (Retain Arroyo through Failure of Elections).

According to Bayan Muna Rep. Teddy Casiño, Oplan Rafael is the brainchild of Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales. He said that Gonzales planned it after he made an allegation that certain political groups were planning to cheat in the May 10 elections. Casiño also said, “Rather than a postponement of the elections, the scenario builders and planners including Gonzales are now looking at a failure of elections to ensure Arroyo’s stay in power.”

Comelec officials summoned Gonzales to provide proof of his allegation. But Gonzales couldn’t present any evidence. However, previous to making his “cheating” allegation, Gonzales issued a statement that the “administration was preparing for the scenario of 30 percent failure of elections.” But many believe that he concocted his allegation to lay the groundwork for “questionable election results” which would trigger Oplan Rafael.

Project Full Moon

Earlier today, I came across a posting in Facebook by a certain Rene (full name withheld to protect him) under the subject of “Project Full Moon.” The following is the text of the message:

“It is GMA orchestrating the whole thing, Project Full Moon started with the Maguindanao Trump Card that will no longer work as Noynoy as pulled away from Villar beyond the reach of the 6.43% Maguindanao Trump Card, Plan B is now in full swing with the replacement of the Flash Disks of ALL PCOS machines with the Dagdag-Bawas Source Codes, when this ..fails, meaning EXPOSED BEFORE ELECTIONS, the Final Act will be the FAILURE OF ELECTIONS. Villar is financing the whole thing with GMA. As of the moment, they are looking at a 3% margin of Villar over Noynoy in the Automated Dagdag-Bawas results.”

“Project Full Moon” surfaced in the news last March when Gen. Delfin Bangit was installed as Armed Forces Chief of Staff. In my article, “‘Zombie Voters’ Could Cause Failure of Elections” (GlobalBalita.com, March 17, 2010), I wrote:

“Sister Mary John Mananzan — who is co-chair of the Association of Major Religious Superiors of the Philippines (AMRSP) — suspects that the “Emperor” may have been appointed to manipulate the May 10 elections. She mentioned a code name — ‘Project Full Moon’ — for the alleged plot. She said that it involves the hacking of the Automated Election System (AES) which will be used for the first time on May 10. In a text message to the media, she said: ‘National Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzalez will manage the May election cheating through Bangit and Brigadier General Romeo Prestoza.’ Prestoza is Arroyo’s current ‘spy master’ — head of the Intelligence Service of the AFP.”

Civilian-Military Junta

Last March 20, 2010, the following news was reported: “Malacañang yesterday strongly hinted at a military takeover with the establishment of a junta government should there be a massive failure of automated elections scheduled in May 2010. Deputy spokesman Charito Planas indicated the possibility of the creation of a military junta arising from a massive failure of elections which could take place if the Commission on Elections (Comelec) falls short on its preparations for the May polls owing to various elements deemed contributory to such fears.”

The report further stated, “A civilian-military junta government scenario, with Arroyo heading the junta, was earlier being worked out by then National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales, as it was bared that he had approached several sectors of society, including Catholic bishops and even high court Chief Justice Reynato Puno to agree to the establishment of a civilian-military junta government.”

At that time, nobody took Planas’ warning seriously. But now, with the inevitability of a NO-EL scenario and the execution of Oplan Rafael, a civilian-military junta headed by Gloria would come into play.

Trojan Horse

As someone once said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident.” My recent article, “Who owns Smartmatic-TIM?” (Global Balita.com, April 29, 2010), is now beginning to make sense. The alleged connection between the Arroyos and Smartmatic-TIM is manifesting itself as clear as day.

I would not be surprised if it turned out that Smartmatic-TIM is the Arroyos’ Trojan Horse to Comelec.


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