Stand Up, Take Action, Make Noise for the MDGs 2010

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Gloria Arroyo's Lies Not Even Close!

“I know much work remains to be done, but I am determined to turn over to a new government a new Philippines, one that is ready for the challenges bringing the nation to the verge of First World [status] in 20 years.” (GMA June 12, 2010).

This statement of GMA is clearly a hyperbolic claim that borders on an outright lie. As a trained economist she should know that given the more widespread access to data at present her claim can be easily checked against empirical facts.

It is a stylized fact in economics to consider the US and Japan as first world countries. So using these countries as benchmarks and a simple growth rates ratio index which compares the percent share of world product of a nation to its share of world population ( we refer to this henceforth as a gross rates ratio index or GRR index), let us check the viability of GMA's claim.

Taking data from our own central bank, the World Bank, the IMF and the CIA fact books, I made an estimate of the gross domestic product and population data of a few relevant selected countries. The GRR index scores are then computed to facilitate cross country comparisons. The process of computing index scores is a familiar tool in geomatics to reduce comparison factors to pure numbers so that standardization across geographic regions is achieved.

In the following table gross domestic product data is presented together with population figures for eleven countries and the resulting GRR index.
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country	gdp	pop	gdpshare	popshare	GRR Index
United States	15000	315	0.24590	0.04500	5.464
Japan	5320	129	0.08721	0.01843	4.732
Singapore	190	5	0.00311	0.00071	4.361
Korea	842	54	0.01380	0.00771	1.789
Taiwan	360	30	0.00590	0.00429	1.377
Malaysia	215	26	0.00352	0.00371	0.949
Thailand	300	66	0.00492	0.00943	0.522
China	4758	1500	0.07800	0.21429	0.364
Indonesia	530	238	0.00869	0.03400	0.256
Philippines	180	94	0.00295	0.01343	0.220
India	243	1150	0.02038	0.16429	0.124

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Based on 2009 and 2008 data projected to 2010 values. World Population 2010 (my estimates) 7 Billion. World Product US 61 Trillion. All GDP figures are in current US billion dollars.

Population are in millions.

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Our 2008 GDP (gross domestic product - goods and services produced domestically in the Philippines) according to bangko sentral figures is $166.9 Billion US dollars. Growth in 2009 was just 1 percent on account of the world economic contraction. And with the election spending upward adjustments for 2010 growth were made up to 3.8 percent. Lately with strong first quarter growth of 7.3 per cent, private international groups adjusted their annual growth estimates to above 4.2 percent for the years 2009 to 2010. I used a 5 percent growth rate and forecast Philippine GDP to be about $180 Billion dollars for 2010.

With a World Product estimate of about $ 61 Trillion in 2010 (my estimate, 2008 figures of the World Bank has a larger World Product but the financial crisis has since then shrank World GDP) Philippine GDP accounts for less than a third of one percent of total world product. Our own central bank estimates our share at .47 percent of world product after PPP (purchasing power parity) adjustments. I think there is a bit of window dressing here since PPP adjustments involves a lot of subjectivity. Without such adjustments, my own estimate places our share at just about .295 percent of world product.

In terms of population share we account for 1.3 percent of the 7 billion world population. Contrasting this with similar measures for the US we have the US share of world product at 25 percent while its share of world population is only 4.5 percent. The ratio of GDP share to Population share gives an index score for the Philippines at .22 while the equivalent GRR index score for the US is 5.5 . Using this index scale the difference of 5.5 to .22 gives us an idea of how far our state of economic development is from a first world country.

These GRR indexes of the US and the Philippines tell us that a person living in the united states is 25 times better off than a person living in the Philippines (0.22 divided into 5.5 = 25). Translated into a meaningful interpretation for US based Filipinos this index means that the average Filipino american is 25 times more economically potent than a Filipino in domecile in the Philippines.

Compared to our Asian neighbors Thailand has a population of 66 Million and a GDP of US 300 Billion for a GRR index score of .52; Malaysia has a 26 million population and a GDP of US 215 Billion for an index score of .95 ; and Indonesia with a population of 238 Million and a GDP of US 530 Billion has an index score of .26 which is still better than the Philippines. China with 1.5 billion people and a GDP of US 4.758 Trillion gets an index score of .36; While India with a population of 1.15 billion and GDP at US 1.243 Trillion has an index score of .12 . Japan has a population of 129 million and a GDP of US 5.32 Trillion for an index score of 4.73 ; Singapore has a population of only 5 million but has a GDP of US 190 billion ( bigger than the Philippines in absolute terms) and has an index score of 4.4 ; Korea has a population of 54 million and a GDP of US 842 billion.for an index score of 1.79 ; Taiwan has a population of 30.3 Million and a GDP of US 360 Billion for an index of 1.38. The computed Gross Rates Ratio index shows the Philippines as a cellar dweller only better off than India in these current year 2010. Singapore occupies an exalted position next only to Japan - the honored place the Philippines had in the 1950's.

What the GRR index tells us is that given a nation's share of the world's population, a score that is close to one like that of Malaysia in the table means that Malaysia is getting a proportion of world income flows that is almost equal to its percentage share of the world's population. Hence Malaysia is close to Unitary Balance while Thailand, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and India are in a development deficit status. These latter countries mentioned are getting a much lesser share of world income flows when compared to their share of the world's population. Comparing the GRR index results to that given by the HDI - Human development index of the UN, the rankings were almost identical. However in the HDI using 2008 data the UN ranked Japan higher than the US and the Philippines ranked a bit higher than Indonesia with India remaining at the bottom.

Using the GRR index we can roughly classify the eleven countries in our table as first world for those with an index above 1; second world for those close to 1 like Malaysia; and third world for those below .5 and close to 0. We can use the concept of unitary balance where the percent share of world population equals the percent share of world product to indicate second world status and among the non-first world countries in our set of eleven nations it is only Malaysia that has attained this.

Given the disparity in development among the eleven nations being discussed the relevant question apropos GMA's 20 year claim is how much should the Philippines have in population growth and GDP growth during that period to achieve first world status? second world status?

World product is estimated to grow at 4 percent a year. At this rate world product will be 134 trillion in 2030 at constant 2010 US dollars. The world’s population is also estimated to grow at 1.14 percent a year and is projected to to be 8.8 Billion people by 2030. Using the highest GDP growth rate of 7.3 percent per annum attained during GMA's governance we project Philippine GDP in 2030 to be 737 billion at constant 2010 US dollars. Since GMA was not able to tame Philippine population growth in her term we use the existing 1.9 percent growth and project Philippine population to be 137 million people by 2030. Deriving our GRR index using these projected figures our result is .353 only. This index score is way below unitary balance and therefore does not even allow us to classify the Philippines in 2030 as a second world nation. By 2030, with just following GMA's template and no radical changes in the way we manage our economy, we will be well below Malaysia in relative terms and clearly nowhere near 'the verge of first world status' that GMA claims.

Not even close.

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Related Articles from GRR:

• A Partnership for Progress
• Mobilizing Overseas Filipino Investment Remittance through a Philippine "Marshall Plan"
• The First 100 Days of Pres. Benigno C. AQUINO III
• Expectations from a Noynoy Aquino Presidency.
• One Hundred and a Thousand Days – then a Thousand More!

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Gil R. Ramos Ph.d. finished his Doctorate in Monetary Economics and Masters in Population Economics at the University of Hawaii. He did his AB Economics and also a Masters in Urban Regional Planning both at the University of the Philippines. He currently teaches MBA students at the (New Jersey City University) NJCU in Managerial Economics, Corporate Financial Management, and Managerial Information Systems. He runs his own consulting firm GRR Analytics based in the New York / New Jersey area.

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112th Philippines Independence Day Celebrations

I. Proclamation/Program/Vendors' Showcase
Place: Los Angeles City Hall City Council Chambers & Forecourt, 200 North Springs St., LA, CA 90014
Date: Friday, June 11, 2010
Time: 10:00am - 3:30pm
Host: The Los Angeles Filipino Association of City Employees (LAFACE)
Attire: Filipiniana
Costs: Free entrance. Free lunch. Everyone invited.
Contact: According to Cora Aragon Soriano, please email Alex Banares
for free parking. Furnish your car info (make/model/color/year/owner).

Additional remark:

10:00 am Proclamation by the LA City Council of Philippine Independence Day at the Council Chambers, LA City Hall, 3rd Floor
11:30am-1pm: Reception and Entertainment at the LA City Hall Forecourt.
FREE lunch will be provided
10am thru 3:30pm: Vendor's Showcase

2. ANNIVERSARY GALA DINNER BALL
Theme: "Celebrating Freedom through Culture and Arts"
Place: Hilton Hotel near Los Angeles Airport, Los Angeles
Date: June 12, 2010
Time: Not indicated
Host: The Kalayaan 2010 Planning Committee headed by Gil Mislang
Attire: Filipino formal wear, Barongs for men and Terno na Saya, Sarongs and Maria Clara-styled evening gowns for women.
Costs: Requires ticket. Price not indicated.
Contact(s): For tickets and/or other inquiries: Gil Mislang, (323) 286-2121;
Josie E. De Jesus, (714) 272-0300; Trini Foliente, (909) 226-3271;
Bing de la Vega (661) 468-0497.

Additional remark:

The event will feature local Filipino pop singers Mon David, Louie Reyes, Paco Arespacochaga, Miguel Vera, Angeline, Gelo Francisco, violinist Andy Tecson and pianist Juliet Posadas. Music by Midnight Motion Band and MC, Shiela Ferrari, a former Miss Philippines and actress in Miss Saigon. Guest speaker will be Filipino American Corey Calaycay, councilman of the City of Claremont and candidate for the California 59th District Assembly in the June 8th primary elections. He will be introduced by Vice Consul General Daniel Espiritu.

3. Filipiniana at Union Square Philippine Independence Day Gala
Place: Union Square, San Francisco
Date: Saturday, June 12
Time: Program is from 1:30 through 4 pm
Host: The San Francisco Filipino community in association with West Bay Pilipino Multi-Service and the Filipino WWII Veterans Memorial Library and Museum
Attire: Filipiniana
Costs: Free entrance. Everyone invited.
Contact(s): Rudy Asercion, Yolanda Stern, Rodel Rodis, and Dennis Normandy are members of the Philippine American War Centennial Committee. For more information please (415) 724-0641.

Additional remark:

The Filipiniana at Union Square Philippine Independence Day Gala is a major celebration by the Filipino community of the San Francisco Bay Area to create awareness of the Philippine culture and for many Filipino-Americans to rekindle their roots and heritage and to raise funds for charity projects.

The celebration will start with an opening reception and unveiling of the Dewey Monument Plaque at 1:30pm. It portrays the struggles in the Philippines after Commodore Dewey victory in Manila Bay and the taking possession of the islands by the U.S. To follow will be performances including that of soprano Stephanie Reese, tenor Dr. Tito Yusi, The Singing Priests, the FilVet Rondalla and other surprise guest appearances.

4. A PHILIPPINE INDEPENDENCE DAY OFFERING
Pakaraguian Music & Dances of the Southern Philippines
Place: Neurosciences Institute Auditorium
10640 John Jay Hopkins Drive
San Diego, CA 92121
Date: Saturday, June 12, 2010
Time: 7:00 PM
Host: Sponsored by the Center for World Music
Attire: Not indicated
Costs: Not indicated
Contact(s): For information, please call - (619) 470-6024; email

Additional remark:

Mini concert featuring the traditional culture of Mindanao to be performed by the Samahan Pakaraguian Kulintang Ensemble & Samahan dancers. Generously underwritten by the Neurosciences Institute as part of the program, "Performing Arts at the Neurosciences Institute", a series of cultural events presented as a community service to support the arts in San Diego & to underscore the special relationship between the arts & the brain. Web announcement

5. "HIMIG NG KALAYAAN '10 FREE CONCERT" .
Place: Kapistahan Grill
1925 W. Temple St., Los Angeles, CA 90026
Start Time: Saturday, June 12 at 7:00pm
End Time: Sunday, June 13 at 1:30am
To see more details and RSVP, follow the link:here

6. 2010 HERITAGE DAY
Date: Sunday, June 13, 2010
Place: West Covina and Azusa, California
Host: Filipino American Chamber of Commerce-San Gabriel Valley
Attire: Not indicated
Costs: Not indicated but everyone invited and WELCOMED to bring family and friends.
Fellowship lunch after the program..
Contact: Johnny Chua

Additional remark:

1) Free health screening in front of the Seafoodcity Market [Amar and Azusa], West Covina
2) Program starts at 11am with a Special Sunday Service, "FREEDOM CRY," describing the birth of Filipino Revolution. To be held at the Gospel Life Community [18901 E. Amar Rd., Walnut, CA 91789]
7. FIESTAS FILIPINAS 2010
"Stories of My Heritage"
Place: Oxnard Performing Arts Center
800 Hobson Way, Oxnard, CA 93030
Telephone: (805) 486-2424
Date: Sunday, June 13, 2010
Time: 12-11pm
Host: Not indicated
Attire: Not indicated
Costs: Free and open to the public
Contact(s): Charleen Morla, Fiesta chairperson: (805) 236-1309
Grace Tuazon, co-chair: (805) 766-3231

Additional remarks:

Featuring Performances by Rey Kilay, Freda Simone, Salin Lahi Dance Troupe, Zambales Youth Dancers, Undeclared, Emanon, Ohana Dance Group, Henry Garcia's Tae Kali Do, Icac Line Dancers, Fil-Am Dancers, Fil-Am Camarillo's Polynesian Dancers, Cirque Quejada, Doce Pares Eskrima, and more.

Vendors Include: Philippine Center of Ventura County, Our Pet Stop, Philippine Expressions Bookstore, Cookie Lee Jewelry, Salin Lahi Dance Troupe, C&C Sweden Shoes, Silver Mountain Jewelry, Magnetek USA, Missing Ink Tattoo, Among Friends, Katalysta, and many many more!!

OTHERS:

FULL SLATE OF EXHIBITS COMMEMORATING 112TH ANNIVERSARY OF PHILIPPINE
INDEPENDENCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Philippine Embassy announced a full slate of art exhibits – from paintings to pottery - in the month of June to commemorate the 112th anniversary of Philippine independence.

Showcasing Filipino artistry, craftsmanship and heritage, June month begins with the launch on June 1st of "Brown Strokes on a White Canvas," which features paintings by more than 20 Filipino and Filipino-American artists from the community. Now on its seventh year, "Brown Strokes on a White Canvas," is presented in partnership with the Philippine American Foundation for Charities, Inc.

To be launched on June 10th, during the week of the 112th anniversary of Philippine Independence, is the exhibit "Lupang Hinirang" by Chicago-based visual artist Paul C. Balan. Lupang Hinirang Series 1 through 10 is a visual representation of the lyrics of the Philippine National Anthem. Consisting of ten 24" x 18" pen and ink compositions, the works highlight the virtues of courage, pride, honor, duty and love of motherland that inspired Filipinos in their quest for independence and greater peace, progress and prosperity.

According to Paul Balan, his striking images drew inspiration from Philippine folklore. Balan is from the town of Paete, a town known for its sculptors, painters, musicians and poets. Balan is a descendant of Pablo Bague, one of Paete's master sculptors. Chicago-based Balan is an Associate Artist for the United States Mint's Artistic Infusion Program.

Capping the month will be the exhibit of stoneware potter Hadrian Mendoza entitled, "Carabao" which will be launched on June 18th. Named after the Philippines' water buffalo, the exhibit shows three dimensional works evoking Philippine symbols and icons, including the carabao.

Mendoza is a graduate of Mary Washington College in Virginia and was a former student of Washington, D.C.'s Corcoran School of Art where he was awarded the prestigious Anne And Arnold Abramson Award for Excellence in Ceramics. Mendoza recently received and completed the 2007-2009 Toyota Foundation Grant: "Asian Neighbors Network Program: Unlocking Southeast Asia's Potential.

The exhibits will all be held at the Embassy's Carlos P. Romulo Hall.

SHORTENED CONSULAR HOURS ON 11 JUNE 2010
Los Angeles, 02 June 2010 – The Philippine Consulate General wishes to inform the public that in view of the preparation for the celebration of the 112th Declaration of Philippine Independence which will be held at the Rizal Hall of the Consulate General, the Consulate will be open from 9:00 am until 12:00 noon on 11 June 2010.

Information Section
Philippine Consulate General
Trunkline: 213 639 0980
Directline: 213 637 3028
Website

SF CONSULATE HOLIDAY NOTICE

The San Francisco Philippine Consulate General will be closed on the following dates in commemoration of the 112th Declaration of the Philippine Independence:

Friday, 11 June 2010
Monday, 14 June 2010

Regular consular service hours will resume on the Tuesday, 15 June 2010.

For emergency cases requiring assistance from the Consulate during the holidays, please contact the Help Desk at telephone no. (415) 269-2090.
Cultural, Community Relations and Public Information (CCPI) Section
Philippine Consulate General, San Francisco
447 Sutter Street, 6th Floor,
San Francisco, CA 94108 USA
Tel. No.: (415) 433-6666 ext. 314
Fax No.: (415) 421-2641
Email
Website

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Dionesio C. Grava - Part-time community journalist based in Los Angeles and editorial writer at Forum Asia.

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